By Elsie Onubogu
“Rwanda did not begin with a million dead. Srebrenica did not begin with mass graves. Yugoslavia did not disintegrate in a single day. They are the result of accumulated catastrophes. May Nigeria not happen”.
The danger facing Nigeria is not simply that:
• The 2027 elections may be rigged, manipulated or stolen;
• Courts and election tribunals may be compromised;
• Opposition parties may be intimidated and harassed;
• Media and journalists may lose their independence;
• Citizens may be disenfranchised;
• Political violence may claim lives;
• Votes may not be counted, ballot boxes snatched, or
• The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) manipulated; or
• Legislature and the Judiciary reaffirm its incapability to maintain its independence, or
• Impunity, corruption, intolerance, exclusion and insecurity is worsening – catastrophes.
The deeper danger is the normalization of all these failings—to the point where a majority of Nigerians have become convinced that nothing they do can change the political order.
This is passive nihilism: the surrender of hope and agency, and the abandonment of the belief that collective action can make a difference.
That mindset is already taking hold among millions of Nigerians.
People feel exhausted, disillusioned, powerless and increasingly apathetic.
When life feels meaningless and change seems impossible, people stop fighting back.
They stop demanding accountability.
Eventually, they may stop caring about freedom itself.
That is the environment in which authoritarianism flourishes.
Democracy does not always die with tanks in the streets.
Yet, in that moment, a dangerous silence, like a whirlwind before a storm, gathers.
Democracy dies quietly — through the steady destruction of institutional restraints, the politicization of state power, the intimidation of opponents, the manipulation of elections, the erosion of judicial and legislative independence, and terrorization of the public, resignation and political apathy – as witnessed in today’s Nigeria.
The objective of authoritarian rule is often more insidious than the outright abolition of democracy:
it is to preserve the appearance of democracy while emptying it of meaning.
Elections (or the semblance) hold. Institutions function with limitations, but accountability disappears.
When institutions collapse, rights are violated, and citizens lose faith in peaceful political participation.
In Nigeria, this danger is increasingly captured in the political expression, “standing on Bola’s mandate” — a phrase that has turned what ought to be constitutional authority into a justification for impunity – eroding democratic values.
The consequences extend beyond politics to national stability, security, and trust.
Nigeria’s warning signs must therefore be assessed in its totality.
It is a national security concern – with regional, continental, and global implications.
Such warning signs places Nigeria in a precarious state.
History has shown that- the most dangerous moment is not necessarily when people take to the streets in anger.
It is when they become convinced that nothing they do matters.
That is when democracy begins to die — not with a bang, but with resignation.
It is also when a little flicker can trigger an uprising.
That little flicker – is usually the spark that sets off the storm.
Most recently, this was witnessed in Tunisia (2010 – The Arab Springs) – a spark by a street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi, who set himself on fire to protest police abuse, corruption, and economic hardship.
Bouazizi dealing with hunger and abject poverty had his fruit hawking cart seized by the Police against street ‘hawking.’ Unable to tolerate the hardship, he set himself on fire in front of a government building. His desperate act set off a wave of anger that eventually toppled the Tunisian government and spread across the entire region.
Nigeria stands on a dangerous precipice — and it may take only a spark to ignite it. This precipice is double-edged.
1) Against the haunting lessons of Rwanda and Srebrenica, one can only say: ‘May Nigeria never happen.’
2) Yet there is another, troubling reality: impunity, corruption, injustice, abuse and state capture has become deeply entrenched, Nigerians’ pent-up anger may eventually reach a breaking point – to usher in transformative change.
It may come at a cost – and there’s the danger! For a society repeatedly denied accountability does not remain indefinitely passive. When institutions fail, justice becomes inaccessible and peaceful avenues appear closed, frustration can harden hearts into desperation — which can spiral out of control.
For instance, the lessons of Rwanda and Srebrenica is not that societies suddenly descend into catastrophe.
It is that warning signs accumulate, institutions weaken, impunity takes root, hatred and divisions deepen, opportunities for prevention are repeatedly ignored and missed.
Beyond Rwanda, Srebrenica, and Somalia – the lesson of “missed opportunities” compelled the United Nations to emphasize that – the critical challenge is to act before warning signs (sparks) become mass graves. In digress, that spark may come as a consequence of recent ‘hate speeches’ recorded last week.
Nigeria’s National Human Rights Commission warned that hate speech constitutes a direct threat to Nigeria’s peace, unity and democratic development, particularly as the country approaches another major electoral cycle.
Both political actors and religious leaders have a responsibility not to employ speech that incites hatred, hostility or violence.
This past week, two (2) Islamic clerics (Sheikh Sani Yahaya Jingir, and Sheikh Shafiy Adeba) publicly declared Nigeria a Moslem country where people of other faiths – ‘infidels’ are not welcomed. Both clerics asked anyone unwilling to accept that fact to leave Nigeria. Such public statements are not mere rhetorics but ‘HATE SPEECH.’
As the then Special Adviser to the United Nations Secretary General on the ‘Prevention of Genocide’ Alice Ndelitu, pointed out, “Violence does not start when physical attacks are launched. Violence often begins with words. Words of hatred spread intolerance, divide societies, promote and endorse discrimination, and incite violence.”
Nigeria’s religious diversity is a strength and a sensitive fault line — politicians often exploit this as election approaches. Statements suggesting that Nigeria belongs exclusively to one faith, or that citizens of another faith are less entitled to belong, cannot be dismissed as harmless rhetoric. In a country deeply scarred by sectarian conflict, the normalization of religious supremacy is dangerous.
Nigeria belongs to Nigerians—not to Muslims, Christians, political parties, ethnic groups or ruling elites. Any attempt to make citizenship conditional on faith strikes at the constitutional foundation of the Nigerian state.
This is why the National Human Rights Commission’s warning on hate speech must be taken seriously. In a polarized society, hate speech is not merely offensive language; it can help categorize, dehumanize and mobilize citizens against one another.
The Tinubu administration (if responsive) must act decisively. The fact that similar inflammatory remarks have previously been made by Sheikh Gumi cannot justify silence. Tinubu government’s consistent failure to respond plays into the narrative that hate speech is acceptable when politically convenient. You know this because the usual defenders of the indefensible did not utter a word.
These warnings must not be viewed with religious or ethnic lens, or dismissed as routine noise of Nigerian politics – particularly when the credibility of Nigeria’s democratic process is already strained and stained.
As the Catholic Bishops recently told President Tinubu, there is growing disenchantment with electoral manipulation and a widespread belief that votes do not count.
Declining voter turnout reflects this deepening distrust and political apathy – particularly after the Mamood Yakubu’s claim of ‘IREV’ malfunctioning during the presidential results in 2023. .
Against this backdrop, the Osun governorship election slated for August 15, 2026 had recorded allegations of violence, intimidation and attempts to undermine citizens’ participation.
The Osun State Government accused senior APC figures, including Senator Adenigba Fadahunsi, of encouraging political violence. Such allegations should be independently and transparently investigated.
The Inspector-General of Police – Olatunji Disu, addressing the violence in Osun, reportedly offered a crucial reminder:
“This is an election, not a war.”
That principle should resonate beyond Osun as Nigeria prepares for 2027.
An election is not a war. A political opponent is not an enemy combatant. A ballot is not an act of hostility. It is a civic responsibility. Political victory does not confer the right to intimidate, persecute or silence those who vote differently.
When political competition adopts the language and methods of warfare, democratic values are compromised. When religious or ethnic identity is added to this explosive mix, the danger becomes even greater. Unequivocally, Nigeria must reaffirm that; Nigerian’s citizenship, dignity, security or political rights does not depend on religious or ethnic filiation.
When exclusionary rhetoric precedes persecution; political violence turns into communal violence; communal violence morphs into organized conflict – leading to full blown war – ethnic cleansing, etc.
The movie with such exclusion is ‘Déjà vu.’ Rwanda did not begin with a million dead. Srebrenica did not begin with mass graves. Yugoslavia did not disintegrate in a single day. They are the result of accumulated catastrophes.
In the final analysis, catastrophes are often preceded by weakened institutions, political violence, demonization, impunity, propaganda, intolerance, divisions, identity-based mobilization and the erosion of public trust.
This is followed by the normalization of political violence, the demonization of opponents, and impunity by perpetrators.
The Tinubu administration has a profound responsibility: to stop striking, fueling or permitting the spark that could ignite a storm. Its constitutional duty involves preservation of Nigeria’s unity, defense of rights and dignity, uphold the rule of law, and safeguard institutions and values of democracy.
But the responsibility does not rest with government alone. The Nigerian people must stand firm. We must refuse to surrender our voice, rights and democracy to fear, apathy or political intimidation.
What I know for sure is, the warning indicators are not hypothetical — they are already present and increasingly visible in Nigeria.
Nigeria must act before these warning signs become tomorrow’s tragedy.
#MayNigeriaNotHappen!
ElsieOnubogu.NomM©15August2026. Email:Elsiedavis2025@gmail.com