Tag: ADC

By Oseloka H. Obaze

When I appeared on Arise Prime Time interview with Charles Aniagolu on 2nd June, 2025, I said amongst other things, that any political opposition coalition for the 2027 presidency, which did not include Peter Obi, will not succeed. I stand by that statement. From the caption of this piece, any discerning reader would have already guessed the singular objective of this write-up; to encourage Peter Obi not to be deterred by any force or persuasion from running for the Nigeria presidency in 2027. Here’s the upshot. If Obi runs, he might not win; if he does not run, he is guaranteed not to win.

The fate of Nigeria hangs on the balance. Most of the Nigerian masses desirous of real leadership change, regardless of their social stratification, education, religion, tribe or political affiliation, hardly consider any person – not Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Goodluck Jonathan, Rabui Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi, Aminu Tambuwal, Bukola Saraki or Nasir El-Rufai – as genuinely representing their hope, better than Peter Obi. As contentious as this assertion may seem, it’s no hyperbole. That’s the conflated perception and reality in present day Nigeria.

Some politicians with vested interests, who understand this reality fully, are already fighting back. They are strategically deploying all forms of trolls and subterfuge to demarket Peter Obi. Corruption is also fighting back, albeit, covertly. The onslaught against Peter Obi is so well oiled and funded; you’d think he is the only person running for the presidency in 2027. Obi’s delegitimization and demythologization are being orchestrated by those awestruck by fear. Two years away from the 2027 presidential election, pre-purposed and pre-positioned media goons are already traducing and pummeling Peter Obi without let or hindrance. Also, those hired hands pretending to be from Obi’s Igbo tribe, are rendering what they want many to believe are even more persuasive, potent, and factually damaging anti-Obi sentiments. They are dredging up vexatious dregs. The assault was long anticipated by those of us aligned with Obi. Still, some heady questions persist: who is afraid of Peter Obi’s presidency and whatever hope it holds out for Nigeria or whatever ill-fate it portends for members of Nigeria’s political elite that belong to the roguish fringe?

Peter Obi is not a saint. He is the first to admit that publicly. Those who have worked closely with him don’t always agree with him. But he listens. He reads and accepts bad news. He accepts criticisms with saint like equanimity. Because he is human, he does make mistakes. But he is also a servant leader who is willing to adapt; correct his ways and apologize if he errs. He is as deliberate as he is frugal. Also, Peter Obi has the ability to cultivate friends, allies, and adversaries. He is visibly doing that nationwide to the chagrin of his political adversaries. He has left most confused.

Those who still claim Obi is not known in the North, only tell yesterday’s tales. When ahead of his initial presidential run, they said he was not known in the North and rarely visited the region; he toured the 19 Northern States in two weeks despite the prevailing insecurity. Of recent, more than any rich Nigerian we know, Obi has spent his personal wealth and resources doing altruist work and offering social welfare support around the nation, in the most critical and collectively beneficial sectors. He has given a new face and modality to philanthropy. His public munificence contradicts boldly, the allegations of his stinginess. Yet, some say he is only showboating and wasting his time and resources. Interestingly, his political peers, who possess or have acquired huge largesse from public coffers, have not done half as much.

I was fully entrenched in the national political mix in April 2022, when Nigerian youths begged the political class to give them Peter Obi. They paid the PDP for Obi’s presidential nomination form, yet PDP’s leadership demurred. Obi and his embryonic Obidient Movement left PDP and found a political haven elsewhere. When thereafter, Peter Obi’s critics and opponents contended that he had no political structure, except for “four men in a room tweeting,” he rallied and grew his “Mustard Seed” support base to well over 20 million voters, and astounded the nation by winning the 2023 presidential elections handily, only for that mandate to be wrested away from him via the INEC legerdemain and judicial subterfuge. When the grab-jacking of the 2023 elections, and the consequent charade of judicial petitions and verdict did not dissuade Peter Obi from further politicking, pro-establishment forces went after his Labour Party, infiltrated it’s ranks with rogue elements, causing its inevitable implosion.
As an insider, I know and can aver that perhaps, Peter Obi’s main oversight in 2023, was that you never become the leader of labyrinthine Nigeria, without first negotiating with the so-called “owners of Nigeria” about their individual and collective safeguards. Such expedient guardrails not only protect their vested interests, but also form the stickum that holds the Nigeria mosaic in place. Peter Obi needed the “owners of Nigeria” to know, understand, trust, and accept him. The often proffered notion of the “failure to protect his votes,” has merit but was hardly the core culprit. Lack of national elite consensus on the need for sweeping political change was fully at play.

There were other discernible, if tangential factors. For balance, Obi needed a Northern Muslim running mate. Some of the Northern Muslim politicians, who were approached to run with Peter Obi in 2023, pulled back or pulled out. Almost all wanted Obi to be the number two on any such ticket. Three years later, almost all may have realized their strategic mistake and have changed their minds. Given a second chance, they will readily pair with him in 2027, with Obi heading the ticket.

Broad realizations of what Nigeria has become, and may yet become, now compels a new thinking. Setting aside the rabble rousing and the revanchists’ default to the tired narrative about the strategic votes required from various parts of the nation to win the presidential elections; the political groundswell for change will trump every other consideration. For most Nigerians, 2027 cannot be business as usual. Nigeria’s political elite know this fact and certainly understand the dire consequences of overplaying their hand.

Nigerians have heard Peter Obi say routinely that he is not desperate to be president. Yet, many Nigerians at home and abroad are desperate on his behalf. They’ve also heard him say that he will be on the presidential ballot in 2027. Of that I’m dead certain. This has nothing to do with sentiments. As is already unfolding, there will be all forms of political permutations and combinations. Some insidious forces will be planted to derail Peter Obi from running. Some will aim to foreclose on his running. Others will be orchestrated to purvey presumably, better winning options and combinations that can unseat the incumbent. Of the latter, Obi might even be offered yet again, the place of the second fiddle on a ticket. For most Nigerians, this option is off the table as it was in 2023.

The reality is that the top 2023 presidential candidates, Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Rabui Kwankwaso, all knew that Peter Obi defeated them in that election. So, too, did INEC Chairman, Mahmood Yakubu. Of late, some of those politicos initially opposed to Peter Obi are openly confessing that he won the 2023 presidential election. The electoral mandate stolen in 2023 was not just Peter Obi’s votes and victory. It was the votes Nigerians freely cast for Obi and for the betterment of Nigeria and her posterity. The second time around, such votes will double and will be amply protected, even with blood and lives. That much is certain. That’s the present national mindset.

Four variables make Obi’s run in 2027 imperative. Regardless of the party platform he chooses, his popular support will not wane. His run will also sustain the zoning arrangement that underpins the equity and efficacy of Nigeria’s wobbly federalism; add fillip to Nigeria’s democratic credentials and affirm that a new Nigeria is indeed possible. Every man, woman, and child old enough and registered to vote in 2027 will endeavour to do so. It will most ill-advised for entrenched forces of government and politics, to risk profound fissures and conflict that would arise from any attempt to support or uphold illegalities that will upend the votes and choices freely made by Nigerians. There is only one factor that could change the realities in 2027; that Peter Obi is not willing to be on the ballot. And that is not even an option anymore. Nigerians own Peter Obi as much as he owns himself. He is now a national asset.

Of Nigeria’s 95 million eligible registered voters, over 33 million or one-third are Nigerian youths, and their votes far outnumber the votes collectively garnered by Tinubu, Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso in the 2023 presidential election. In 2027, most of those votes, if not all, will go to Peter Obi. They will be protected and will count. Those who think or say otherwise, only unmask their naïveté or profound fears of the prospects of a Peter Obi presidency. Despite all imponderables relative to 2027, I’ll only state by way of advice, support, and affirmation; Run, Peter, Run. Let history take its rightful course.

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Obaze is MD/CEO, Selonnes Consult – a policy, governance, and management consulting firm in Awka.