By Ikenna Promise Igwe
As President Bola Tinubu joined world leaders in Vatican City on Sunday, May 18, 2025, to witness the historic inauguration of Pope Leo XIV—the first American pontiff—Nigeria found itself at the convergence of three powerful global forces that will shape its economic destiny. The presidential handshake with the new Pope symbolizes more than diplomatic courtesy; it represents Nigeria’s precarious position between Trump’s punishing tariffs, China’s export machine, and the Vatican’s emerging economic doctrine.
Tinubu’s Vatican Diplomacy: Beyond the Ceremony
President Tinubu’s presence among the many world leaders who were attendees at St. Peter’s Square, for the inauguration mass of the new Head of the Roman Catholic Church, Pope Leo XIV, at the Vatican, placed Nigeria visibly at the table of global influence. After exchanging pleasantries with the Pope during the ceremonial handshake, Tinubu emphasized the significance of his attendance as “consistent in the true sense of unity in diversity.”
Tinubu highlighted “a shared vision for the future, focusing on common values such as peace, mutual respect, and global solidarity.” Such diplomatic outreach takes on heightened significance as Nigeria confronts unprecedented economic pressures from the Trump-China trade war.
Trump’s Tariff War Creates Nigerian Casualties
President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies against China have created a dangerous economic diversion that threatens Nigeria’s manufacturing base. With 27.8% of Nigerian imports already coming from China, the country stands directly in the path of diverted Chinese exports previously destined for American shelves. The consequences for Nigerian industries appear potentially devastating. Nigeria’s textile sector, contributing 2.97% to GDP in 2023, already contracted to 1.75% in early 2024 amid Chinese competition. The furniture market, projected to generate $5.11 billion this year, faces overwhelming pressure from Chinese alternatives. Nigeria’s footwear industry employing 500,000 workers cannot match prices of state-subsidized Chinese products. The growing beauty product market, expected to reach $1.07 billion by 2030, risks inundation by Chinese imports.
The American Pope and Africa’s Economic Salvation?
Pope Leo XIV’s inauguration may mark a turning point in global economic thought with profound implications for Nigeria. Taking his name deliberately from Pope Leo XIII, who’s 1891 encyclical Rerum Novarum established the Church’s social doctrine on economic justice, the new pontiff signaled a renewed focus on ethical capitalism.
In his inaugural address, attended by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and other world leaders, Pope Leo emphasized the need to preserve “the rich heritage of the Christian faith” while addressing “the questions, concerns and challenges of today’s world”—including poverty and environmental protection.
For Nigeria, caught between Trump’s protectionism and Chinese trade practices, the Vatican’s renewed focus on economic justice could provide moral leverage and potential economic partnerships.
“The Pope’s emphasis on just economic relationships directly challenges both American isolationism and Chinese economic expansion at Africa’s expense”, notes Professor Ibrahim Musa of the University of Abuja. “Tinubu’s presence at this historic moment positions Nigeria to potentially benefit from the Church’s social teaching on international economic relations.”
Nigeria’s Structural Vulnerabilities Exposed
These global forces converge against Nigeria’s existing economic challenges:
Persistent infrastructure failures, particularly power outages that cripple manufacturing competitiveness.
Inflation recorded at 24.48% in January 2025 (down from 29.90% a year earlier), undermining business planning.
Currency volatility making imported components prohibitively expensive.
Policy inconsistency creating fundamental uncertainty for businesses seeking to respond to global pressures.
The Moment of Decision
As Tinubu returns from the Vatican, where the American Pope called Ukraine “martyred” and described Gazans as “reduced to starvation,” Nigeria faces its own moment of economic reckoning with millions of Nigerians in abject poverty. The convergence of Trump’s America First agenda, China’s export machine, and the Vatican’s emerging economic doctrine creates both existential threats and unexpected opportunities.
Will Nigeria remain merely a helpless economic battlefield where American protectionism and Chinese exports clash, or can Tinubu’s diplomatic outreach to the American pontiff forge a more just economic path that protects Nigerian industries while fostering sustainable development? As the world’s most populous African nation stands at this historic crossroad, the answer will determine not just Nigeria’s future, but the economic destiny of the entire continent.